Farming Under Climate Uncertainty

A farmer stood at the edge of his field in Shwebo District, Sagaing Region, Myanmar, looking across the dry land. The temperature was extreme, making the soil harden in the sun. Normally, this was the time when he would prepare the land to grow summer paddy. Like many farmers in Shwebo District, he owns a paddy field that relies on water delivered through irrigation canals supplied by the Thaphanseik Dam to grow summer rice during the dry months. But that year, water did not arrive. For weeks, he waited for the release of irrigation water. However, as the days passed, he realized that the water stored in the dam would not be enough to irrigate all the fields. The lower rainfall during the previous monsoon season was one of the reasons the dam had insufficient water to irrigate all summer paddy fields.

In recent years, rainfall patterns have become less predictable, varying from season to season. As a result, water availability for irrigation has become more uncertain, making it harder for farmers to rely on irrigation to grow water-intensive crops such as summer rice. Irrigation water from the dam during the dry season is important in the region, and many farmers rely on it to grow summer rice. When water is insufficient, farmers often try to adapt.

To cope with this situation, some farmers use groundwater to irrigate their summer rice fields by drilling manual or motorized tube wells. However, not all farmers can afford these private solutions. Instead, some choose to adapt by planting crops that require less water than rice. Sesame and green gram are common alternatives because they can survive the dry conditions and still provide income for farming households.

This farmer made the same decision because planting summer rice without reliable water would be too risky. Rice requires careful water management throughout the growing season. He knew that if he could not supply water throughout the growing season, the entire crop could fail. That meant losing the money he had spent on seeds, land preparation, and fertilizer. Therefore, he decided to grow sesame instead, as sesame requires less water than rice and can tolerate relatively dry conditions. By growing sesame, he hoped he could still make use of his field during the dry season to support his family.

After deciding to plant sesame, he prepared the land and sowed sesame seeds across his two-acre field. Over the following weeks, small plants began to emerge from the soil. He checked the plants, and they appeared healthy under the sun and dry weather. He felt relieved that his decision to switch crops might have been the right one as he saw the plants grow taller day by day.

As the sesame plants continued to grow, he eagerly waited to harvest them. In early May, news spread through the village that a cyclone had formed in the Bay of Bengal. Even though the central region of Myanmar is not usually directly affected by cyclones, he knew from experience that cyclones could still bring heavy rainfall to inland areas. As he expected, the rain arrived a few days later. At first, the rain seemed harmless. But the rain did not stop, and it continued to pour over the field through the night and into the next day. He hoped the rain would stop. Unfortunately, the rain continued to fall. After five days, his field began to fill with water.

Unlike rice, sesame plants cannot tolerate standing water. The roots of the plants struggle to survive if the soil becomes waterlogged for a long period. He saw the plants starting to deteriorate, with some leaves turning yellow. He watched this scene with a broken heart. When the rain finally stopped, the damage had already been done. Although some parts of the field drained quickly, other areas remained wet, causing the roots to rot. After seeing the condition of his field, he realized that the harvest would be much smaller than he had expected.

For him, this situation was frustrating but not entirely unexpected. Farmers in the region have long been used to this situation. Water shortages often lead farmers to plant alternative crops instead of summer rice, while sudden heavy rainfall damages crops that are supposed to tolerate dry conditions. This creates a difficult situation for farmers. Growing summer rice becomes too risky when irrigation water is insufficient. However, switching to sesame does not guarantee success either. Farmers must constantly balance different risks and choose the option that seems least likely to fail.

Despite these challenges, farmers like him continue to adapt. Some attempt to improve drainage in their fields by digging small channels to allow rainwater to flow out more quickly. Others adjust the timing of planting by sowing sesame earlier in the season in order to avoid heavy rainfall caused by storms. While these measures cannot prevent all damage, they can reduce the impact to some extent. Nevertheless, not every farmer has enough resources to adopt all strategies. Consequently, some households remain highly vulnerable to climate-related risks.

His experience highlights the complex challenges faced by farmers in the region. Climate change brings new problems, forcing farmers to constantly rethink their farming strategies. For farmers, planting sesame is meant to avoid the risk of water shortage, but the heavy rains brought by cyclones created another challenge. Even so, farmers will continue planting crops again next season. Despite the many challenges, farmers continue to adapt, preparing their land and planting seeds with the hope that the next harvest will be better.

The challenges faced by farmers can also have wider consequences. When yields are low or crops fail, the supply of agricultural products in the market declines, causing food prices to rise. Moreover, farmers' incomes become lower since most households depend on farming for a living. As a result, these pressures can affect food security, as food may become less available and more expensive, especially for rural communities.